Lock 20 is expected to fail next.
“Infrastructure Debt” – accumulation of deferred maintenance and replacement that falls upon the future sooner than expected.
2026: Each lock has 7% probability of catastrophic failure.
With 29 locks on the Mississippi River, the cumulative probability is 40 to 60% likelihood of at least one lock failiing catastrophically. Major failure is not just possible but likely within the next few years. The entire system is aging beyond 90 years, almost double the design lifetime.